American mathematician I am sure that mankind may be the very first civilization of the Universe
No signs of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations suggests either that humanity is the first intelligent race of the Universe, or that technologically advanced civilization on the average there are not more than 500 years, says the mathematician in the article, published in the International Journal of Astrobiology.
«I used to teach astronomy, and I tell my students that humanity, in accordance with statistics must be the stupidest form of intelligent life in the Galaxy. We entered the current phase of technological development a century ago, and other civilizations had to develop millions, if not billions of years,» says Daniel Witmer (Daniel Whitmire) from the University of Arkansas (USA).
More than half a century ago, the American astronomer Frank Drake developed a formula for calculating the number of civilizations in the Galaxy with whom contact is possible, trying to estimate the chances of detection of extraterrestrial intelligence and life.
Physicist Enrico Fermi in response to a high estimate of the chances of interplanetary contact the Drake equation was formulated the thesis, which is now known as the Fermi paradox: if extraterrestrial civilizations so much, then why the mankind does not observe any traces of them?
This paradox, scientists have tried to solve in many ways, the most popular of which is the hypothesis of a «unique Earth». She suggests that for the emergence of intelligent beings unique requirements, in fact, a full copy of our planet.
Other astronomers believe that we can’t communicate with the aliens, for the reason that galactic civilization or disappear too quickly, so we could notice them, or because they actively conceal their existence from humanity.
Witmer offered his explanation for the Fermi paradox, called the «principle of mediocrity» which posits that all of the supposedly «unique» features of humanity are «mediocre» norm in the absence of other examples of the existence of intelligent life arising in fundamentally different circumstances.
According to mathematics, no other intelligent beings in the Universe can be explained by two different but equal hypotheses — that humanity is the first intelligent race of the universe, or the fact that technologically advanced civilizations live very long.
As noted by Witmer, mankind appeared on Earth early enough compared with the duration of the period during which life can possibly exist on the planet. Accordingly, it suggests that intelligent life could emerge on other worlds just as quickly, with a «head start» of several hundred million or even billions of years.
Moreover, the ancestors of humans got a mind for a short time, approximately seven million years, in other words, this means that the mass extinction and «self-destruct» civilizations don’t always have to lead to the fact that intelligent life will disappear forever from the surface of one or another planet outside the Solar system.
Guided by these ideas, Witmer tried to calculate how often should appear extraterrestrial civilizations and how long they can survive lying down in the «the Fermi paradox».
The results of these calculations were disappointing for humanity — intelligent civilization that rivals the level of development of the inhabitants of the Earth, on average there are not more than 500 years before they must either destroy himself, or perish in some natural disaster. In the opposite case, the traces of their existence had to be visible to us.
An alternative scenario is due to the early time of appearance, humanity may be the first intelligent civilization of the Universe. In this case, other civilizations can exist for much longer, but they, most likely, or there, or signals of their existence reaches the Earth.